The Hayseeds blog, No. 232 for the week starting November 24, 2007.
November 10, 2007
Hayseeds No. 231
November 24, 2007
Hayseeds No. 232
December 1, 2007
Hayseeds No. 232
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The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle's Jay Gallager does a little handicapping on upcoming races across New York State.
Unlike what the article claims, Republican Andrew Saul is out for the 19th district, and it looks like Congressman John Hall might get a free pass on the election. In the 20th, the article is right about how divided the Republicans are. The Western New York Congressional seats, are up for grabs, but my guess is the Republicans will hold at least two if not all three of them.
Much to my delight, it looks like Assemblyman Koon is out to run for the Senate. After three terms (despite promises only to serve two), he's going after Senator James Alesi. Former State Senator Richard Dollinger wants to be the Democrat who goes after Senator Robach, the former Democrat turned Senate Republican turncoat.
As Jay Gallager notes:
But how the races swing could rest partly on who wins the parties' presidential nominations — and whether Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plunge in popularity will weigh down Democrats, some leaders warn.
State GOP Chairman Joseph Mondello said the party's fate may be tied to whether former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani wins the Republican presidential nod.
With Giuliani, New York could be in play in the presidential race and spur the national GOP to pump cash into the state, which could help other candidates, he said.
This is all very true. Still, I predict that the Senate will stay Republican next year, or if it does change, it will be by the narrowest of margins, decided by local factors and not the state or national political climates. Even if the Democrats grab the State Senate in 2008, they will be hard pressed to keep in 2010 and beyond—New Yorkers like divided government, and so much of our state inheritly divided.
Have lots of money. It seems that Republicans are out of money, being out of power, so they are relying on self-financing candidates to run their own races rather then help out from the top, as there is little money from the party to help them out.
Self-financing candidates tend to be quite delusional about their own prospects, as instead of getting grassroots support, they spend their own money. Money doesn't buy votes, but grassroots supporters will generally vote for you, besides supplying you with money. So it's very tough to run self-financed.
A lot of people are talking about Senate Minority Leader Malcom Smith's remarks about a possible hiring freeze to make up for the upcoming budget deficit.
Sounds like a reasonable thing—it's not like they are laying people off, it's just that they are delaying hiring.
That's what one researcher is saying about a study saying occassional fasts can be quite good for you, even if you are hungry for a while.
According to the study, it forces you body to rethink it's desire for sugars, cut down on insulin secretion, and gives your digestion system a rest. Plus it cuts down on the calories.
MotherJones has an article about the growing requirement that people give up their rights to sue when purchasing a car, regardless of the problems or failures. The alternative remedy mandated, is arbitrated.
So it would appear, with a recommendation to the legislature for a 5% hike in tuition for students, that would try to make up for an increase in costs since the last 25% hike in 2003.
At least 5% is less then 25%, and certainly most people understand that expenses are going up. A tuition hike is more targeted then a general state tax hike, or allocating money from the general fund. It's tough to ask everybody whose not in college to pay more, for those who are students.
Yet, there is a real downside to raising tuition. Higher prices will deny more people the prospects of a college education, and will mean higher loans and more debt on the part of students. That means that students will be slaves to loans, and be investing less of their wages into the New York State economy. And indeed, if the state invests more money rather then students into education, the cost for per taxpayer is tiny—maybe 50¢ per person a year rather then $110 per student per semester.
As Rick Karlin points out it's still very much so tied up in politics.
No we aren't talking about Spitzer's now defunct license for illegals debacle, but the fact that the DMV is trying to take back a GETOSMA license plate that they issued but now say is offensive.
For one thing, the DMV should not have decided to take back the plate they've already issued, especially for something as trivial then this. I'm not sure how anybody could say this is controversial in our country, particularly when Osma Bin Laden is a fugitive of justice.
There ought to be minimal restrictions on message on license plates—ie. limited to outright sexuality or obscenity as defined by the tripartite definition of obscenity in New York common law.
It looks like both Hillary and Edwards people where able to sneak into the Republican debate and plant questions. Can we grow up boys?
They want the state only to certify scantron voting machines, that would make it much easier to check the accuracy of the results and ensure fair results even when the machine is programmed wrong or fails due to an power outage or other problem.
I think the fear of ballots being dumped in the Hudson River is highly overrated, particularly with locked boxes and inspectors and poll watchers keeping an eye on how things go. Not to mention, paper ballots are cheap and can be preserved for a number of years for further review, study, or debate.
Not surpisingly, NYS spent more on Medicaid per each man, women, and child then every other state at $2,316 per capita.
The bill came into $44.1 billion dollars versus much more populous California's bill at $34.2 billion. California has 37 million people versus New York's 19 million people. California spends $937 per capita. Nevada, at the bottom of the list spends $437 per capita about $1.1 billion total.
That's an awful lot of money, even if it goes to good causes. I can understand why President Bush wants to rein in our spending through a variety of means—we are literally taxes ourselves off the face of the planet. But you go tell the permanently disabled boy or your grandmother, that she can't have her benefits anymore.
