The Hayseeds blog, No. 183 for the week starting November 11, 2006.
October 29, 2006
Hayseeds No. 182
November 11, 2006
Hayseeds No. 183
November 18, 2006
Hayseeds No. 183
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Here is how the polls have the Gillibrand-Sweeney race, including cross tabs from the most recent Siena Poll:
| Poll | Date | Sample | Sweeney (R)* | Gillibrand (D) | Und | Spread |
| Siena | 11/01 - 11/02 | 628 LV | 43 | 46 | -- | Gillibrand +3.0 |
| RT Strategies/CD | 10/24 - 10/26 | 1040 LV | 42 | 53 | 5 | Gillibrand +11.0 |
| Grove Insight (D) | 10/24 - 10/24 | 400 LV | 40 | 43 | -- | Gillibrand +3.0 |
| Global Strat. (D) | 10/16 - 10/18 | 404 LV | 42 | 44 | -- | Gillibrand +2.0 |
| Siena | 10/16 - 10/17 | 630 LV | 53 | 39 | 9 | Sweeney +14.0 |
| RT Strategies/CD | 10/15 - 10/16 | 1001 LV | 41 | 54 | 5 | Gillibrand +13.0 |
| Grove Insight (D) | 10/13 - 10/13 | 400 LV | 42 | 41 | -- | Sweeney +1.0 |
| Zogby | 09/22 - 09/24 | 400 LV | 51 | 37 | -- | Sweeney +14.0 |
| Grove Insight (D) | 09/05 - 09/07 | 400 LV | 43 | 31 | -- | Sweeney +12.0 |
| Global Strat. (D) | 08/29 - 08/31 | 410 LV | 47 | 39 | 14 | Sweeney +8.0 |
| Siena | 08/21 - 08/23 | 628 RV | 53 | 34 | 13 | Sweeney +19.0 |
| Zogby | 06/06 - 06/07 | 401 LV | 51 | 27 | 22 | Sweeney +24.0 |
That's really bad news for John Sweeney to say the least. In other words, Gillibrand leads Sweeney in every poll since 10/18 including the most recent Siena Poll. The scandal between him and his wife seems to be one of the driving factors, though it seems the tide had already started to turn against him before the scandal broke.
It looks like Alan Hevesi, despite all the scandal that political insiders have been thinking about, is still about 12-points ahead, according to a Quinapiac Polling Insitute poll taken just last week.
It suggests that people are very unhappy with the state of things nationally, and while it might not be effecting local politics it is very much hurting Republicans and handing Congress and the US over to the Democrats.
Some of it's the fault of the war and people's belief that the Republican Congress is wasteful and corrupt, and part of it is to blame with the evil 6th year of a Presidency that gives even the best President real hardache.
Still, sweeps like this don't come every day. And the extinction of moderate Republicans in Congress means things will never be the same in US Politics. Democrats may not continue keep their majorities forever, but it seems party politics will exist in the future like before yesterday.
While it looks like our State Senate stayed Republican and in control of Joe Bruno (coat-tails did not apply well to state races except in a few Assembly races), the US Senate is almost certain to flip to Democratic-control.
Democrats now have 50 seats in the US Senate and the latest AP story suggests that the Democratic candidate in Virgina is continuing to stay ahead narrowly as results are being reviewed and recounted.
After winning back many seats across the nation, Democrats now have the house firmly in their control with 235-seats, largely as a result of many moderate republicans losing their seats. As some people are saying it, the moderate Republican is now exntict.
As some pundits are noting it, the new generation of Democrats joining the ranks are a lot more conservative then the existing Democrats. It seems that voters are figuring out if you want a Rockfeller Republican, you have to vote for a conservative Democrat. Certainly some Democrats are worried about the purity of their party, though having control is certainly more fun.
It's amazing though to see how the sweep has popped so many Republicans out office that we never expected to see go. I was nothing short of amazed when I heard Charlie Bass in New Hampshire was history, then hearing that John Hall defeated Sue Kelley and that Nancy Jonhson in Connecticut was gone also surpised me greatly.
Those of us who worked so hard to get Kirsten elected are very happy to see Kirsten-elected to Congress as part of the great Democratic sweep this year that brought many new Democrats into office. It's amazing that we were able to pull this off, particularly with a 4% spread over Sweeney in a district that has more then 2 Republicans to every 1 Democrat.
My observation is that what Kirsten has been saying for a long time is true. Many Republicans in New York are essentially Rockefeller Republicans, and while they like the more conservative stands of the Republicans they also are pragmatists who share little of the dogma that dominates the south-western part of the Republican party. You might be somewhat moderate like Sweeney, but still you are upholding the President's values.
I spoke and got to meet a number of Republicans as an election inspector in District 5 of rural Schyuler Falls yesterday. I can confirm that most Republicans are really good people, and pretty moderate too boot. Most of them are worried about the same things the rest of us are—having a enough money to keep their truck fueled up, having something to retire on as all the pensions disappear, and keeping their farm from going under and selling their cows to pay the bills.
Most Republicans are really nice guys (and gals) and just as passionate about politics and the issues that we care about. They are straight shooters like us, despite being a little misguided—just like our party. Some people say Republicans play dirter then Democrats, but certainly we aren't immune to say the least.
It seems New York Republicans are realizing that in many cases they are better off with our leadership better reflecting their values, even if we aren't perfect.
Getting 69% of the vote, he has defeated Faso with the largest margin in New York history, even breaking the record of Mario Cuomo in his 1990 race against disasterous campaign of the late Pierre Rinfret (a memory charished by all NY political junkies).
He is left with some real messes to clean up from the previous governor that promise to give him a very challenging first year, including developing a relationship with Shelly Silver.
He's going to be one hell of a power broker. Expect great things out of this man, expect some big changes to happen in New York. Put him next to Nelson A. Rockefeller in your history books!
That's about all I can say about the state of politics in our country. While some Democrats up here in the North Country maybe grumpy or depressed about the state of politics up here, it seems that nationally we are in a time of real change. We saw many important changes with the recent elections, particularly on the national level:
It seems that Massachussetts after electing Devall Patrick with an overwhelming majority now has it's first African American governor, the second governor in US History to be black. This follow up roughly on that state being the second state to elect a black Senator in the 1960s with Senator Booker—the other being a southern state during reconstruction. That's great news, showing that some people can rise about the hidden racism in our society.
Similiarly, Nancy Pelosi is now Speaker of the House, and is considered the second most powerful person in the United States after the President. She represents the voice of Congress, and she has been given a great deal of power as the first women ever to be elected speaker. She was very nervous at the press conference on televison at noontime today, but who can blame her.
These are some historic moments, that should not be downplayed with all the other major changes that are happening during this election that is slowly but surely redefining America as we know it today.
The state-owned New York Racing Association last week very quietly announced that it was seeking bankruptcy protection from it's creditors on grounds that it no longer had the funds to pay sufficently for it's expenses.
Many people suspected this was coming—but most had hoped that state would bail our NYRA one more time. It seems almost certain now that New York racetracks will be operated by a private company starting next year, regardless of the merits of such a proposal.
The man who is the head of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee (ie. he gives out money to folks) and the head of the Democratic State Committee (ie. he elects folks to office) is formally stepping down from the later in part because of pressure from Governor Elliot Spitzer who most likely thinks that this is not good Albany politics from the party that's suppost to be cleaning up Albany. He also was involved in some misspoken words, such as suggesting that Democrats don't care about taxes.
With the exception of the Assembly Democrats picking up Pat Casale's old seat and Andrea Stewart-Counsins beating State Senator Nick Spano, there really was no real change to report.
It looks like President Bush not only will have to deal with a Democratic House but also a Democratic Senate as George Allen has conceeded to Webb.
While I was too busy to get up the Times Union endorsement for Gillibrand, it is interesting to review it now that she is elected to Congress:
Ms. Gillibrand also advocates a sensible energy policy designed with the needs of ordinary people, not huge oil companies, in mind. She's more committed than Mr. Sweeney to policies that would reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil. She's also more determined to find a way to make health care less costly and more easily available...
...Yet Ms. Gillibrand has emerged as unquestionably qualified for Congress by virtue of her vision and intelligence. She would be an articulate advocate for the people who would become her constituents. She's especially passionate about saving the small farms in the Hudson Valley, and she sees the dredging of the Hudson River as the economic opportunity that it truly is.
I am throughly impressed by Kirsten. I think she will be a good Congresswomen, particularly for those environmental reasons listed in the editorial. It's great to just finally see the Hudson River being cleaned up.
There is a fascinating article on PVC, PCBs, and other toxic chemicals and policy today.
They are doing an internal investigation, probably on behest of the former Congressman John Sweeney who still has issues with losing the election and the fact that his wife beating had to become public right before the election. Some people say Howard Wolfson was the leaker, though I have my doubts. Wolfson is a pretty amazing person, but I'm not so sure he would stoop to that level. Not that this all matters much anymore.
Chris Callaghan, the man who ran against Alan Hevesi in his losing bid for Comptroller, not only lost the election but also will paying for a replacement clutch on his famous '99 Honda Civic that his staffer that he loaned to helped to wear out.
Replacing a clutch on a front-wheel drive can be a bitch, and if you pay somebody to do it, it could set you back as much $1000. That's pretty bad, especially figuring Callaghan didn't run for re-election in Saratoga County and is now without a job except for the tax returns he did on the side of his former Comptroller job. This being New York State, he can use campaign funds to fix his clutch.
The 66 year old man who once was the head of the New York Republican Party (just as former Congressman John Sweeney—that feels good to say—was former head), man who complained loudly about the proposed firehouse near one of his beef cow pastures that could somehow upset his cows, is being kicked around as a candidate for NY-20. The infamous Betty Little's name is also being tossed around.
It's interesting to hear about Sandy thinking about running or at least having his name tossed about in the prospect of running for Congress. He's from the southern part of the district—it's clear from this election that Dutchess and Columbia Counties in the Hudson Valley have a far bigger impact on the election then the what the Central Counties in the district might had a few years ago—Saratoga and Washington.
